Will this be a COP that loses the 1.5 C target?

COP27

“The pace of things has been incredibly slow.” Rod Oram at the Global Climate Summit found an atmosphere of inaction that worries some attendees

Egypt, the COP27 climate negotiations chair and host, has produced an informal outline of the themes that could lead to a final agreement that expires within three days.

But in typical COP fashion, negotiations are likely to continue into the weekend before a final text is agreed and COP27 is declared closed.

This two-page document touches on all the big issues of climate mitigation and adaptation and the funding needed to fast-forward them in developed and developing countries. But most themes will require intense negotiations, especially between developed and developing countries, to reach common ground, even if many get lost.

Importantly, the document does not explicitly mention 1.5C, the critical threshold above which the climate crisis will rapidly escalate. The closest we can come is a mention that the final document “broadly reflects” the decisions taken at COP26 in Glasgow last year. They were hailed at the time as “keeping the 1.5 alive”.

However, they were then smashed to the brink of extreme geopolitical, climatic, political and economic unfavorability in many countries.

British politician Alok Sharma, who presided over COP26, said at a meeting of politicians and officials at COP27 in Sharm El: “Keep 1.5C and leave Egypt or lose 1.5C. Either become a COP,” he said. -shake.

“We need to figure out how we want future generations to see this COP and each of us as a country. It’s really up to us to decide.” is important,” he said.

Another key issue at this COP is that billions, if not trillions, of dollars will be diverted from rich to poor over the next few years to mitigate losses and losses from climate change catastrophes. It’s a way to help you recover from harm.

Simply establishing a rapid process to create such a mechanism by 2024 will yield the best possible results. And the current odds for that goal alone are long.

Meanwhile, Germany is leading the global shield. This is another initiative that looks like an insurance scheme where premiums in developing countries are subsidized by voluntary donations from wealthy countries. It will exist alongside broader financial mechanisms. Germany launched plans at COP27 in partnership with her V20 group of climate-vulnerable countries.

Germany has pledged €172 million, France €20 million next year, Ireland $10 million and Canada $7 million. The total amount pledged to date is approximately $210 million. By comparison, Pakistan faces costs of around US$30 billion due to massive flooding earlier this year.

Some developing countries have expressed support for such insurance-based approaches, which are complementary to much larger mechanisms for providing their countries with affordable climate finance, We stress that it is not a substitute.

Such initiatives and negotiations are common to all COPs. However, each of his COPs has its own characteristics, partly reflecting the world situation at the time and the style of presidency and hospitality offered by the host country.

A final verdict on this COP will have to await final agreement and many reflections on the experience of the COP as a whole. However, there is already a lot of discussion among delegates about the experience so far.

For example, Rangatahi Maori NGO representative Kaeden Watts said: International Indigenous Forum on Climate Changeis a recognized representative body by the United Nations Climate Framework and has provided Newsroom with his take on this COP in comparison to the two previous COPs he has attended.

“It was a really different energy. The pace of things has been incredibly slow compared to previous years. Negotiations are slower and fewer decisions are made.”

On the other hand, today’s theme of COP27 is yesterday [Tuesday] It was energy day. Highlights included:

– An urgent call from EU and many other negotiators to phase out fossil fuels

– The World Health Organization has highlighted the widespread damage to human health caused by fossil fuels and called for convention action on the issue

– Africa’s Just and Equitable Energy Transition Initiative was launched by Egypt as the COP27 presidency. Specifically, it aims to provide renewable power to the approximately 600 million sub-Saharan Africans who lack access to electricity.

Today’s official theme is sea and transport. But a consortium of international NGOs usurped the official program and renamed it Day to Phase Out Fossil Fuels.

My COP report tomorrow will cover some of its highlights, as well as several reports on sustainable aviation fuels, which will be featured under the official transport theme.

Finally, following up on comments in my report on Monday, I said that New Zealand was “conspicuously absent from the COP27 Agriculture and Adaptation Day on Saturday”.

In response, our government sent us a list of negotiations and events that our climate ambassador, Kay Harrison, and her Mfat colleagues participated in on Farming Day.

They worked hard the day of the COP. But as useful as these government initiatives were on Farming Day, they were invisible and irrelevant to our food customers around the world.

What really matters to our customers is what farmers are doing with the climate.

But there were no farmers or their representatives to tell the world their story on Sunday.