New Zealand

Outbreak of Covid-19 Delta: 15 new cases, what does 90% vax rate mean for blockade?

According to Ashley Bloomfield, Director of Health, there are 15 new Covid-19 cases in the community.

There are also two new cases of managed isolation.

Most of the new community cases are contacts for three households that are not currently linked.

There are 15 people in the hospital and 3 people in the ICU.

This month, more than 37,000 key workers were tested in Auckland.

The suburbs of surveillance have changed and include Mount Wellington in Auckland in the latest.

Almost 10 percent of Clover Park’s population has been tested in the last few days.

New test requirements for those who need to make a one-time trip for those who travel outside Auckland. You will need a negative test result within 72 hours of your trip.

Bloomfield said this time there were more restrictions on moving across Auckland’s borders than in the previous blockade.

He said all teachers and students at Mangatangi School tested negative for Covid.

There is still one open test.

A 90% vax rate can prevent thousands of deaths, but other measures are needed

It is possible to vaccinate 90% of our total population, as discovered by a fresh model released by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Something can save the deaths and lives of thousands of Covid-19s unhindered by constant blockades.

However, modeling performed by Te Pūnaha Matatini researchers also suggests that vaccination alone is not sufficient to keep the virus away and that public health measures are still needed.

The Pfizer vaccine will soon be approved for use in children aged 5 to 11 years, and modeling has shown that this can increase coverage by up to 90%. This is the central threshold for the new Herald campaign.

It’s much more optimistic than previous modeling by the same researcher, and 97% of kiwis need both Pfizer jabs for New Zealand to withstand the Delta without the need for more difficult measures such as blockades. I found that.

But that was before the vaccine was available to young people over the age of 12, and before it was expected that the vaccine would be approved for children over the age of five.

However, modeling has some annoyances about what happens when the vaccine intake has been given both doses in the past, with 35% taking only one dose and less than 90%. There was a number.

Assuming only baseline public health measures and limited test trace isolation quarantine, even with 80% coverage of 5 seconds or more, modeling is median of 1.1 million infections, approximately 60,000 hospitalizations, and nearly 7,000 deaths. All value estimates were performed within the time period. Only one year.

With 70% coverage, the corresponding numbers were even higher, with 1.7 million infections, about 110,000 hospitalizations, more than 13,000 deaths, and about 18,000 beds occupied at peak times.

However, 90% of the modeling pointed to 171,000 infections, with approximately 6000 hospitalizations, just over 600 deaths, and 438 beds occupied at peak times.

“Modeling results show the importance of achieving the highest possible vaccination rates for New Zealanders,” said modeler Dr. Rachel Vinnie.

“If almost all New Zealanders are vaccinated, we can avoid the need for strict alert level 3-4 restrictions.”

At the same time, the increased threat posed by the Delta variant has been revealed in recent data showing that it is highly infectious and likely to cause serious illness.

“According to modeling, in the case of Delta, herd immunity cannot yet be reached by vaccination alone,” Hendy said.

In the 80% scenario, a higher alert level was needed to control the outbound, but the higher the coverage rate, the less so.

“If we can get vaccination rates well over 90% of the age group of 12 years and older or 5-11 years, we can control the virus with more sustainable public health measures,” said modeler Professor Michael Planck. Stated.

“Testing, contact tracing, and wearing a face mask can lead to pretty good health.”

Vinnie described the alternative as “dark.”

“The inability to reach these high levels of vaccination means that we must continue to rely on blockades and strict border restrictions to avoid the deaths of thousands,” she said.

“This can undermine our health care system, and the Maori and Pacific communities will bear the brunt of this health burden.”

This model provided a rough guide to the benefits of high vaccination rates at the population level, rather than a detailed roadmap for resumption.

The results finally showed that if one wanted to see the end of the blockade, one would have to work towards a very high vaccination rate.

He also showed how important it is to achieve high immunization rates not only nationally, but also in specific communities, including the Maori and Pacifica populations.

“The results here show the considerable benefits of achieving high vaccination rates in the coming months,” said Hendy.

“The message from modeling is that Covid-19 will continue to disrupt our lives for some time, but to minimize that disruption by ensuring that we are all vaccinated. Is possible. “

“There is no magic threshold for vaccination coverage, but the higher the coverage, the less limits you will need in the coming years.

“And most importantly, all communities need to be well covered by vaccination. No one can be left behind.”

Over the coming weeks and months, modelers were hoping to publish a more detailed study of which measures were most effective in the community and borders.

Meanwhile, the government says there is a “big mountain to climb” because it is difficult to reach rural areas, which are still lagging behind in trying to increase ethnic immunization rates.

Deputy Health Minister Peeni Henare said there are some Maori and Pacific communities with low vaccination rates and it is the government’s job to raise them.

The government has shown that 90 percent of the eligible population needs to be vaccinated in order to relax restrictions and give people more freedom.

Of the 3.15 million people currently receiving the first dose, 298,008 are Maori and 192,841 are Pacific.

Given the high inequality built into vaccine deployment, Maori and Pacifica lag 40% and 16% of the overall rate, respectively, as age prioritization implicitly prioritizes Europe / other ethnic groups. Is completely vaccinated.

Hennale told the AM show that the numbers had improved significantly in the last six weeks, but every effort had to “throw the kitchen sink” to ensure that the vaccine was available.

This included sending buses led by Maori health care providers to hard-to-reach communities.

He admitted that “they had a mountain to climb.”

COVID

The lagging groups were primarily based on ethnicity, but also at a low rate in local communities.

“The only thing I can say to everyone there is to make myself available for vaccines.”

Hennale said evidence around the world showed that inequality in these communities continued to grow as the country tried to reopen its borders and focused on unvaccinated people.

It was the government’s responsibility to make these communities accessible to the vaccine, the gap did not widen and some of these communities were closed.

Outbreak of Covid-19 Delta: 15 new cases, what does 90% vax rate mean for blockade?

SourceOutbreak of Covid-19 Delta: 15 new cases, what does 90% vax rate mean for blockade?

Back to top button