A level 3 blocked life on Tamaki Drive in Tamaki Makaurau, Auckland. The social distance of people while collecting coffee.Photo / Alex Burton
The fact that this Auckland blockade may not work is slowly dawning into the country.
There were 23 cases on Wednesday. 15 cases on Thursday. 9 cases on Friday. Yesterday 16. After 5 o’clock
And for half a week, we fully know that their numbers should be much closer to zero, if not yet.
Even Ashley Bloomfield had to finally admit that we all started to notice this week: “may not return to zero” in Auckland.
The admission makes it difficult for the Prime Minister to extend Auckland’s blockade further beyond next week. If you’re still recording the case, few people can see the logic to continue with the failed lockdown.
The truth is that the government already knows this result for four weeks. It was then that analysts had already warned that they might not be able to reach zero. But they stuck to the blockade in the hope that it might work. Second, from the need to further reduce the number of cases. And finally, to buy more time to be jabbed by us.
The government hopes that by next Monday, Auckland will be close to 90 percent of the initial dose. It will give the Cabinet the confidence to consider dropping us to level 2. 90 percent of that is possible, but it doesn’t look good. We have been stuck at about 80% for days and the increasing number to get the first jab is declining almost every day.
At some point, vaccinated Auckland citizens will lose patience for this. We will be very aware of the fact that we are held hostage by the unvaccinated Auckland people, those who have not yet obtained the jab.
How long can you keep your kids out of school, shut down your company, and keep people in your house just to buy a few more scammers and decide? Is there any reason why Oakland citizens who want a jab, seven weeks after the blockade, didn’t receive the jab? At some point, the individual needs to start responsibly.
The prime minister’s selling job has been made difficult by the growing public fear of Covid. Partly because of the vaccine. Wearing a Pfizer jab on your arm feels much safer. I don’t feel the blockage as needed. You feel ready to seize the opportunity. Also, this outbreak was not particularly horrifying. It’s big, but we lost only one life.
Even the fear from Professor Sean Hendy on Thursday has leveled off. PM now moves him to predict 7,000 deaths a year, unless his model is well above the jab rate of 80% than when it was shot down by others. Another government analyst, Rodney Jones, called it “overcooked” and pointed out that these dire predictions wouldn’t work in the real world. In Singapore (a country of the same size as New Zealand, with a jab rate of just over 80%), only 16 deaths are recorded per month. According to Hendy’s model, they should have lost 540 people.
Currently, the general public and cabinet calculations are whether they are sitting at level 3 where they cannot reach zero for a few weeks, or at level 2 where they cannot reach zero. If a group of disobedient Auckland citizens (many of whom are gangsters) break the rules and continue to spread Covid, the rest of us will be from locked down level 3 or more free level 2. Did you see it?
Obviously, much could change next week, before the Cabinet meets to consider the blockade of Auckland. The outbreak may want to take off, terribly astonish the citizens of Auckland, and keep them trapped. Lockdown can turn a corner and suddenly hit a zero string, zeroing the last push.
Unless one of them happens, or just as important, it’s probably counterproductive to watch the locked-down Oakland ring the case number every day. It can make the Jabbed Auckland people more impatient. It may make them feel like a failed blockade hostage.
Heather du Presis-Alain: Hostaged by unvaccinated
SourceHeather du Presis-Alain: Hostaged by unvaccinated