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When will the pandemic end?

further, COVID-19 vaccine During use, it provides long-term immunity, similar to smallpox and polio vaccines. Otherwise, the vaccine’s immunity is weakened, which can leave the individual unprotected. In addition, the vaccine needs to be available to everyone in order to attempt eradication. This is not currently feasible, but production is expected to increase for the rest of 2021 and 2022. For polio, allow undetected spread. Very clear symptoms, such as the smallpox rash, have made it easier to identify cases and control the transmission of smallpox during eradication campaigns.

Therefore, eradication is over, and at least for now, eradication is very difficult. It leaves us with a third possibility: the endemic virus. This means that it will exist at low levels of the population for the foreseeable future. Dr. Najera suggests that SARS-CoV-2 will become more similar to the four endemic human coronaviruses that commonly cause the common cold. However, because a significant portion of the population is vaccinated, there are far fewer infections and deaths than experienced in the last 16 months, and outbreaks are unlikely to overwhelm the hospital. Become.

The conclusions of this endemic are consistent with the results of the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” epidemic. August 10, 2010, about 16 months after the first start, The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the pandemic “finished” But I warned. “Even in the post-pandemic period, this does not mean that the H1N1 virus is gone. Based on past pandemic experience, the H1N1 virus has taken on the behavior of the flu season virus for the next few years. It is expected to continue to be popular. ”This has happened. More than a decade later, the descendants of the 2009 pandemic virus are still prevalent, just as the pandemic influenza virus was prevalent after the 1918, 1957, and 1968 influenza pandemics. At some point, WHO will issue a similar declaration for COVID-19. This is when the level of new cases is low enough in most countries around the world. But this is not the end of the virus.

The next stage of a pandemic life

Monica GreenA medical and global health historian and independent scholar, his PhD points out that the “end” of a pandemic is really in the eyes of the beholder. Pandemics last longer than the most acute and deadly outbreaks. “Most history of medicine focuses on Epidemic: The visible part of the outbreak in the human community. And most human communities have always been able to see things on a small scale.Therefore, the “epidemic” ends when the illness disappears. to us” However, “us” is defined from the city to the nation-state.Dr. Green Own work Study the spread of Yersinia pestisThe bacteria that cause bubonic plague and are the pathogen of plague indicate that past pandemics have technically lasted for hundreds of years. But that does not mean that their outbreaks have always been the most serious. Various stages were involved.

So we don’t seem to be out of the forest yet, but we’re probably heading for the beginning Post-pandemic stage Percentage of outbreaks in the United States New variants may still emerge, and infections are expected to occasionally flare, especially in areas with low vaccination rates.

It is important to note that the decline in the number of cases in the United States does not automatically mean the end of the pandemic. This is, by definition, global. Depending on the rate of worldwide vaccine distribution, the pandemic could last for another year or more in low-income countries. Dr. Kenny hopes the vaccine will “break the wave of the future” in the United States, but for many low- and middle-income countries, “the wave will come if we don’t do a much better, much faster job.” There is a very real fear of “isn’t it?” To expand the worldwide production and distribution of these vaccines. Currently being proposed partnership Additional vaccines that can be used to increase vaccine distribution and production in these countries and in countries that are still experiencing high levels of COVID-19 infection are still being tested.

When will the pandemic end?

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