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The white man swung around to Biden. Trump made a profit with black and Latin voters. why? | Musa Algarbi | Opinion

THis general story over the last five years is that Trump seizes and maintains power by appealing to the desire of white voters and men (especially white men) to maintain patriarchy and white supremacy. It was a thing. However, it seems difficult to square these issues with preliminary exit poll data for this year’s presidential election.

Let’s start with gender: Women across race and ethnic groups Playing cards This cycle. In the last election, Trump won a white woman by a 9 percentage point difference. This year he won 11 percentage points. In 2016, the Democratic Party scored 44 percent points for Hispanic and Latino women. In 2020 they won 39. In the final cycle, Democrats won a black woman with 90 percent points. 81 points this year.That is, in the year that black women first boarded a major party ticket in US history, the margin between Democrats and Republicans among black women shifted by 9 percentage points in the opposite direction-towards Trump...

Trump saw the same benefits as blacks and Hispanics male Similarly.

Overall, comparing 2016 and 2020, Trump scored 4 percent points for African Americans, 3 percent points for Hispanics and Latin Americans, and 5 percent points for Asian Americans. The changes described in Edison’s exit polls have been validated by the Associated Press poll, with similar movements between black and Hispanic voters during the cycle.

You can get some additional context about this move by looking at the polls on the eve of the US elections.

Start with Hispanic and Latin votes. Comparing 2016 and 2020, South American ancestral margins have shifted 47 percentage points towards (or away from the Democratic Party) Trump. Margins are also 37 percent points among people from Central America, 35 percent points among Dominicans, 16 percent points among Puerto Ricans, 15 percent points among Mexican Americans, and Cubans. 9 percentage points shifted between. Indeed, this latter group actually came to fully favor Trump over Biden.

So, recognizing that these populations are not monolithic, the Democratic Party won most of the Hispanic and Latino votes overall, but nevertheless, Hispanic and Latino voters went to Trump in this cycle. It has shifted decisively.

A similar pattern applies to Asian Americans. Filipinos, Koreans, Chinese, and Indian-Americans seem to have flowed towards Trump as well. This trend was so dramatic among Vietnamese-Americans that, like Cubans, they actually fully supported Trump. Since 2016, it seems that only Japanese Americans among Asians have shifted to the Democratic Party.

That is, minorities and women (and minority women)-who should be at the heart of the Alliance of Democrats and who are most suffering from the current pandemic and economic downturn- Playing cardsOverall direction.

In fact, the de facto only race or gender constellation that the president did Absent People often described as his core members, white men, benefit.

In 2016, Trump won a white man by a 31 percentage point difference. But in 2020, he earned 23 percentage points for this member. In other words, comparing 2016 and 2020, white men have shifted 8 percentage points in the direction of Biden this year. This helped direct the election to the Democratic Party, despite a significant increase in Trump between minorities and women.

What has changed in race and gender dynamics during this cycle to produce these apparently unusual results? The truth is that there is absolutely nothing. These trends are ongoing throughout Trump’s public life.

In fact, the Democratic defeat by a minority voter precedes Trump’s candidacy. During Obama’s tenure, the Democratic Party saw a decline in black and Hispanic voters in 2010 and 2012. And 2014. Trump won in 2016 with just this long-term erosion. Despite the lack of white support for Republican candidates, Asian, black, and Hispanic voters continued to withdraw from the Democratic Party, tilting their major swing states toward Trump and handing him elections.

Contrary to the general story, Republicans have seen white declines continue throughout Trump’s tenure. For example, almost all the losses the Republicans saw in 2018 white Voter. Compared to 2016, Republicans slightly improved the number of blacks and Hispanic voters in the interim period. However, the margins among whites shifted 10 percentage points in the opposite direction, helping Trump’s opponents win the House of Representatives.

For the 2020 elections, polls continued to tell the story it was telling. Trump was ready to see continued turnover from whites, but Democrats will see continued turnover among voters. Voting trends were consistent and clear.

The main question that the available data could not answer before the vote was whether the loss of Trump by whites would overturn his growth among minorities (as in 2018)-or of minorities. Whether voters helped Trump bring upset again, despite his relatively softness with whites (as it happened in 2016). Now we know.

Breakdown of swing state by New York Times – Compare actual voting data with regional demographics – Despite the increase by Democratic whites, the increase by Hispanic and Latin voters suggests that Trump helped Trump retain Florida and Texas. ing. Republican interests among African Americans did the same in North Carolina. In Georgia, eight of the 11 counties with the highest proportion of African-American voters also shifted to Trump, but these increases were offset by the increase in Biden in racially heterogeneous counties. It was. In Arizona, Trump has reduced the Democratic Party’s 2016 margin in areas with a majority of Hispanic population. The shift between white voters, on the other hand, turned Michigan into Biden.

In other words, the general discourse about race seems to be completely wrong. The shift between minorities was responsible for Trump’s incredible strength in this cycle, but the shift between whites eventually helped Biden push to the limit.

Unfortunately, the dominant gender story was as inadequate as the racial story.

For example, the man did Absent Supporting Trump with record numbers in 2016-also women did not gather strongly behind Clinton. Instead, Hillary lost to support anemia among women. She has won one of the lowest shares of the Democratic women’s vote in decades. And women’s turnout has decreased compared to the previous cycle. If women’s turnout, or Democratic women’s turnout, was as strong for Clinton as Obama, Hillary would have won.

Therefore, the question of why women exercised their agencies as in 2016 becomes a very important issue. In fact, it’s more objectively more important than the way men vote. In 2016, women made up the majority of voters over men. In fact, since 1976, women have made up the majority of voters in every cycle.

Nonetheless, the story about the 2016 elections is overwhelmingly focused on men, sexism, patriarchy and more. Female Voting is mostly ignored.

When discussed at all, the surprising weakness of the 2016 Democratic Party to women is usually white A woman who prioritizes a commitment to white supremacy over a commitment to feminism. Still, there was nothing special about Trump winning the majority of white women.

Back in 1972, Democrats literally never won the majority of white women, only two times.Caucasian women Less It favors 2016 Trump over 1972, 1984, 1988, 2004, or 2012 Republican candidates (for reference, a similar pattern applies to white men).

Nonetheless, it is often said that the 2016 white women’s vote was independently motivated by racism, even though voters had chosen between two tickets.

This time, it will be much more difficult to weave such a story.Yes, white women are actually did This time, unlike 2016, we have shifted to the direction of playing cards. However, black women and Hispanic women have shifted in exactly the same direction.

In short, it was a shift in between a few Voters who helped Trump win the president in 2016. This move among minority voters continued until 2020, with the entire woman shifting to the Republican Party. Fortunately, Caucasian male It overturned this increasing share preference of women and minorities and brought about the political end of Trump.

The white man swung around to Biden. Trump made a profit with black and Latin voters. why? | Musa Algarbi | Opinion

Source link The white man swung around to Biden. Trump made a profit with black and Latin voters. why? | Musa Algarbi | Opinion

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