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Studies show that Covid cases in the United States may be underestimated by 60% | US News

Researchers at the University of Washington have found that the number of Covid-19 cases across the United States can be as low as 60%.

Studies published in Minutes of the National Academy of SciencesIs based on a study that found that the reported number of cases was “only a small part of the estimated total number of infections.” It has important implications for how many Americans need to be vaccinated to stop the outbreak.

The treatise experiences outbreaks caused by delta mutation infections among unvaccinated people as swaths in the South and Midwest, especially in the states that span Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana.

“There are various data sources available to understand the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Adrian Raftery, a professor of sociology and statistics at the University of Washington and author of senior research.

But he says: “Each source of data has its own flaws that show a biased situation about what’s really happening. What we wanted to do was fix flaws in multiple data sources and their strengths. Is to develop a framework that provides ideas for the Covid-19 epidemic across regions, states, or countries. “

The study includes data on deaths, the number of tests performed daily, and the rate of return to positives.Importantly, it also incorporated data from studies of randomly sampled people for Covid-19. Indiana And Ohio.

Random sampling surveys provide strong evidence of the actual prevalence of the disease because it does not rely on people seeking tests that often fail to detect asymptomatic infections.

Based on the analysis of that data, researchers found that as many as 65 million Americans could have been infected. Officially, that number is about 33 million. Researchers at the University of Washington estimated that 60% of all cases were missed, with only one in 2.3 cases in Indiana and Ohio.

Number of Covid cases on Monday Maintain Almost 34.5 million people, mentioned by Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, and generally by the media.

Nicholas J. Irons, a co-author of the study and a postdoctoral student, said the underestimation could “depend on the severity of the pandemic and the amount of testing in the state.”

“In states with severe pandemics but limited testing, undercounts can be very high and we miss most of the infectious diseases that are occurring,” he said. “Alternatively, there may be situations where the test is widespread and the pandemic is less serious, where the undercount rate will be lower.”

The findings have important implications for the possibility that the virus will reach herd immunity, which is the point at which development ends due to the inability to find a new host. As of May, scientists said the Covid-19 herd immunity threshold was About 80%Numbers that are on the rise due to the emergence of highly contagious variants such as Delta.

By the spring of 2021, this study showed that about 20% of the US population was infected with Covid-19.

Without a mass vaccination campaign, studies show that the United States is unlikely to reach herd immunity sooner and is therefore more likely to suffer a wave of outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Even with a mass vaccination campaign, it is unlikely that the United States will reach herd immunity. This year Or perhaps because of highly contagious mutants, low vaccine acceptance in some states, and because children under the age of 12 are not eligible for the vaccine.

About 56% of Americans are fully vaccinated, but their vaccinations are not evenly spread. The northeastern states tend to have the highest vaccination rates, while the southern and midwestern states have the lowest rates.

Due to its uneven distribution, the outbreak of Delta infection has wiped out unvaccinated people in Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana. Vaccines currently approved in the United States are very effective against mutants.

Low vaccination rates, including health workers, have in turn sparked national debate about vaccination obligations, and hospital chains and major city governments have begun to establish vaccination obligations for workers.

Also on Monday, the American Medical Association issued a joint statement with a group of dozens of doctors and nurses calling for mandatory immunization of health care workers. Long-term care worker In particular, it is one of the lowest vaccination rates in the medical industry. 40% or more I haven’t received a shot yet.

Studies show that Covid cases in the United States may be underestimated by 60% | US News

Source link Studies show that Covid cases in the United States may be underestimated by 60% | US News

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