Oakland is currently at level 3.Photo / Alex Burton
Covid-19 modeling experts said the country was sitting “on the edge of a knife” and urged Auckland citizens not to meet friends and family under alert level 3.
A warning will be issued at a cabinet meeting this Monday, a week after the decision to put Auckland in Level 3 limits for at least two weeks until October 5.
Professor Michael Plank of Te Pūnaha Matatini Covid-19 modeler said that the number of cases is increasing and stubbornly refusing to leave with a strange flickering of hope, like the single number of nine cases in the community on Friday. I did.
“Obviously, the number is now 16. [yesterday].. It’s really on the knife edge and can go in either direction depending on how things unfold at level 3, “he said.
“People who take out are required to wear a mask and follow all relatively low-risk procedures. The greatest risk is meeting friends, family and other bubble people,” Planck said. Says.
He said the government’s decision to put Auckland at Level 3 for two weeks was a reasonable time frame to see if the incident was on the rise again or if it was controlling the virus.
Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said it was too early to know what Level 3 was doing. Because you are exposed and need to incubate the disease for several days to check for symptoms and be tested.
He said yesterday’s incident represented what happened a week ago under alert level 4, and Friday’s nine low numbers said nothing about alert level 3.
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“You’ll know what’s going on and if you need to extend it,” Baker said towards the end of the two-week Level 3 blockade.
He said the pattern of cases over the past week or so suggests continued infection in the community and is expected to increase “probably quite significantly” in about two weeks when moving to alert level 3. ..
Baker agreed with the government’s schedule to confirm Level 3 settings on Monday week.
“This virus is fairly consistent. When you reduce the pressure, it begins to spread widely.
“I hope people understand the value of eradicating the virus. If you don’t eradicate the virus, you need to move to another strategy to manage it.”
Even with high vaccination rates, there are hundreds of thousands of unvaccinated people in Auckland, enough to maintain a very active transmission of the virus. He said it would put people in the hospital and kill them.
“It also means keeping the lid on so that it doesn’t overwhelm Auckland’s medical services. Auckland could be at alert level 3 until the end of the year,” Baker said.
Covid infections are not widespread in Auckland, he said, and that the pattern for the past two weeks has been very low every day.
“But unfortunately, the virus is now established in a very limited population that appears to be poor at following blocking rules.”
He sought a last-minute, propulsive approach to really polish and counteract the remaining new chain of communication. This means advanced testing.
“We got the opportunity. If we could get rid of the last case, it would be a big prize for Auckland and the country. It’s within our reach,” Baker said.
A spokeswoman for Covid-19 Minister Chris Hipkins said level 3 and 2 alert settings will be reviewed on Monday, October 4.
The Cabinet meets on Monday when daily press conferences resume. A government spokesman said, “I will not comment on future cabinet meetings.”
The Ministry of Health will announce today’s Covid-19 number in a statement.
Covid 19 Coronavirus Delta Outbreak: Michael Plank Warns New Zealand with “Knife Edge”
SourceCovid 19 Coronavirus Delta Outbreak: Michael Plank Warns New Zealand with “Knife Edge”