Cases of COVID-19 are now growing steadily. What does this mean for the winter wave?

The Biden administration estimates the United States could see $ 100 million COVID-19 Infections and death toll in the fall and winter of 2022, it says The The Washington Post. The forecast comes at a time when the US is on the verge of 1 million COVID-19 deaths: the latest number of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) A total of 995,371 known fatalities at the time of publication. A senior administration official shared the forecast for next fall and winter on Friday Post, And said this underscores the need for more funding Vaccines, TestsAnd Treatment. The official did not provide new data with the forecast Post.

The news raises questions about what awaits us in the coming months, more contagious sub-variants are spreading and the number of cases is growing steadily. The most dominant variant in the United States by the end of April was BA.2, an omicron subtype that accounted for nearly 62% of cases. CDC. The second most dominant variant is the BA.2 sub-variant BA.2.12.1, Which accounted for 36.5% of cases. As experts say, with the development of the virus, its spread improves.

Each subsequent option is more contagious. Daniel Calver, DOThe chair of the lung medicine department at the Cleveland Clinic tells SELF. “BA.2.12.1 seems to be even more contagious than BA.2, which is even more contagious than the original Omicron version and Delta,” said Dr. Culver.

The growing number of cases underscores the transmission: the average positive test rate in the US was 2.5% in early April; As of May 7, it was 7.8% Mayo Clinic. And the statistics are probably higher than we know, because most of them are testing now, says Dr. Calver. Instead of going to the clinic for a PCR test, the result of which is then written down so that public health experts can monitor the spread of the community, many people Test yourself at home And never share their findings with a government agency or research organization that can track COVID-19 cases. “Numbers are very undervalued now,” says Dr. Calver. “Many do home tests that are never reported to any public health authority.”

Prior to extensive attempts at immunization, the above factors may have led to the closure, similar to factors carried out in the first days of the pandemic. However, experts advise us not to conclude that we are heading for another shutdown, and they highlight significant differences between the beginning of 2020 and the present. In particular, many Americans have received safe and effective vaccines that help prevent severe disease and Hospitalization For many people. In addition, many people have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, a virus that causes COVID-19 and provides them with a certain level of immunity. Jennifer Lighter, MD, A pediatric infectious disease specialist at NYU Langone, told SELF. The Biden administration’s prediction that the fall and winter could bring in 100 million COVID-19 infections was probably based on vaccination rates and the threat of future variants, says Dr. Leiter (not affiliated with the Biden administration), but “it is true. Does not mean we are back to two years ago. We now have the tools to prevent serious illness. ”

With that said, we can minimize the damage that COVID-19 will receive in the future by using these tools (or, in other words, vaccinations when appropriate), says Dr. Leiter: “Inadequate use of these tools.” Vaccination can reduce the number of deaths in the future and help hospitals function, he explains. “If we want another big wave to fall, one way to do that is to increase vaccination gaps.


Cases of COVID-19 are now growing steadily. What does this mean for the winter wave?

Source link Cases of COVID-19 are now growing steadily. What does this mean for the winter wave?

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