All options carry risks as Biden confronts Putin over Ukraine | US Foreign Policy

Joe Biden is preparing for a virtual summit with Vladimir Putin With the aim of fending off the threat of another Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The summit was previewed by the Kremlin. The White House has not confirmed that, but spokesman Jen Psaki said, “High-level diplomacy is the president’s priority,” pointing out a conference call with Xi Jinping 10 days ago.

Your stakes are rarely higher than this.China is threatening Taiwan Russia is strengthening its military power around Ukraine.. In either case, the United States can be involved in conflict with catastrophic consequences.

BrigGen Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian defense intelligence, told the Military Times on Saturday that Russia has more than 92,000 troops around the Ukrainian border and is preparing for an attack in January or February. rice field.

Others claim that the threat is not so imminent, Russia There is much to lose from the invasion of Ukraine, but few experts completely eliminate the invasion.

When confronting Putin over Ukraine, all policy options available to Biden carry risks.

In a statement on Wednesday commemorating the Holodomor famine in Ukraine in the early 1930s, Biden reiterated “our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Statements of such support are intended as deterrents, but each time they are repeated, they raise the dilemma that Biden faces if Putin calls his bluff.

“Frankly, I’m worried that we, the United States, will continue to make firm promises to Ukraine and either put themselves in a position to defend them or not defend them completely. Rajan Menon, a professor of political science at City University of New York, said:

CNN has reported an urgent policy debate within the administration on whether to strengthen the delivery of weapons such as javelin anti-aircraft missiles and stinger anti-aircraft missiles. Some governments argue that such weapons increase the cost of Russia’s military aggression, thereby affecting Putin’s calculations. Others warn that it would represent a dangerous escalation and drive the fear of the United States, or Nato The attack that underlies Russia’s aggressive military stance.

Fiona Hill, a former senior director of the National Security Council’s European and Russian affairs, said:

Hill helped prepare for Donald Trump’s summit with Putin and advised the Biden team before the first meeting as Russian leader and president in June. She said the new discussions are urgent and essential, but also include traps that Biden must avoid.

“The current issue is how Russia sees the Ukraine issue as a very tough choice. The United States is worried about Ukraine’s sovereignty over the leaders of Europe as well as Ukraine, or of a full-scale war. I’m at risk, “Hill said.

She added that the Kremlin had long wanted to return to the Cold War paradigm of the two superpowers that would sit and determine the sphere of influence.

One possible solution that may be floating is to mitigate Russia’s fears by excluding Ukraine’s future accession to NATO and limiting its military power, but Hill says it has no Ukrainian sovereignty. It makes sense and claims to set a damaging precedent.

“We can hold a virtual summit. We can sit with the United States and Russia, but Ukraine cannot stand at the negotiating table. We can talk about strategic stability, but we are in a position to negotiate Ukraine. Not at, “says Hill. “And it can’t be just the United States. Europeans have to take this seriously.”

Menon, co-author of the 2015 book “Ukraine Conflict: Rewinding Post-Cold War Order,” suggested that the imminent threat was exaggerated. He said that long before the current crisis, there were already 87,000 Russian troops in the area adjacent to Ukraine, and that area was widely defined. Some troops are more than 430 miles 700 km from the actual border.

“Assuming Russia can put an army of 100,000 into combat, there is no numerical advantage to overwhelming the Ukrainian army (generally calculated at 3: 1). More morale than 2014. It ’s expensive. ”

“Furthermore, the further we move forward, the more we encounter areas with a high proportion of (unfriendly) Ukrainians, risking hit-and-run tactics that try to expand supply lines and disrupt them. These problems and the fact that Putin is burning all the bridges to the west by invading Ukraine are either ignored or given a short stupidity in the general story here. “

That means Putin will not eventually start the invasion if the Russian red lines cross, Menon said.

“We shouldn’t think of pushes coming in when they say they’re just bluffing when they say they don’t allow Ukraine to join NATO. They bluff. I don’t think I’m doing it at all. “

All options carry risks as Biden confronts Putin over Ukraine | US Foreign Policy

Source link All options carry risks as Biden confronts Putin over Ukraine | US Foreign Policy

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